Welcome back and happy feast week folks! Last week was disappointing to say the least. There were two picks I should have seen coming but we will get into that later. I will not be bated into making the same mistakes this week. Lets go make some money on this glorious week of feasting.

So last week, not my greatest in picks, but we will prevail and continue to give out winners. Last week was just a dip in the curve. This week starts a bull run!

Starting off with Thursday night football last week. I really thought that Watson and Lazard and Aaron Jones and Rodgers would really all come together to make this an easy cover. Boy was I wrong, the packers once again proved that they suck so badly. The Titans are a good team, and no one is talking about it enough. Should have seen it coming.

Next, the Eagles. This bandwagon is falling apart, and I think its my fault. Everytime I support the Eagles and want to make money off them, they just lay an egg. But if I talk shit about how they are FRAUDS, they dominate. The Eagles are still Frauds. Cowboys are coming for that ass Sirianni!

Yet another week of hitting the under on a 9.5 point spread. The under 41.5 for the ravens game felt like such a risky move, but that under was easy. Didnt even have to sweat it. Trust the process, take the money, and move on.

Bills once again coming out and looking damn good. I really wish this game would have been played in Buffalo, but alas it was in Detroit. The Browns did there best to cover on the back end of the game there, but I was dead nuts on taking -7.5.

My teaser pick on the Chargers game was unfortunately not a winner. I havent lost one of those picks in so long, but hey what can I do when the Cheifs can score in like a minute and a half. We lost this bet by literally half a point, I am so pissed.

Lastly this week the Cardinals looked like absolute shit. They could not get a damn thing going on offense clearly. The 49ers looked good, and I should have saw that coming, I got baited by the huge spread into taking the underdogs. I will not be fooled again.

Trends are something we should probably check in on this week with the bad week we had last week. First the totals have been going under 57.4% of the time with a record of 93-69. This is a trend where we are starting to see some overs hit, but man there are still a ton of unders hitting. You can definitely tell that Vegas is starting to catch up though.

Dogs have been covering the spread 56.3% of the time with a record of 89-69-6. That record is insane, 89 times this season the underdogs covered the spread, and only 69 the favorites did. I feel that is telling, but this next stat is even more interesting.

AWAY DAWGS have been covering 56.84% of the time with a record of 54-41-3. So the best spread to bet the DAWGS is when they are on the road. 54 times they have proved this, and this is a stat line I love. All that being said, lets get into the picks this week.

NFL Picks YTD 19-16-1

Bills vs. Lions Under 54.5

Another under on a 9.5 point spread. Nothing to talk about here. Just follow the trend, take your money and give thanks.

Giants vs. Cowboys Under 45.5

Alright, another under on a 9.5 point spread. Hear me out on this one though. Yes the cowboys can score a lot of points this game. Yes the Giants can do the same. However I know my Cowboys. The Cowboys usually do not play that well on Thanksgiving. I cant think of a recent turkey day game that they played well. Take the under, this is a classic NFC East defensive battle.

Patriots (+9.5) & Under 48.5 vs. Vikings (-134)

The Patriots always play well on Thanksgiving. The vikings are proving they are frauds. I expect Belichick to be celebrating this game with turducken. I really would not be afraid of the Pats moneyline in this game. But just as a safety blanket, lets tease the spread to 9.5 and then take the under, follow the trend for all 3 games on turkey day.

Ravens (-4) vs. Jaguars

I like the Ravens to handily beat that jags in this game. Lamar is still out there looking to get paid. Pay the man. Ravens win by 7 at least.

Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Raiders

Raiders stink folks. This is a small spread. I think the Geno and the boys can get this done at home. I may be biased, because I have Locket and DK on my fantasy team. But I do think that the Seahawks are going to cover this easily.

Eagles (-7) vs. Packers

This game is a home game for the Eagles. That Packers still suck. The Eagles are going to come back this week and run up the score at home with no remorse, This game is literally bait central though, so I guess take that for what its worth.

Steelers (+2.5) vs Colts

Colts are bad, but so are the Steelers. I think that Pickett is a good QB and I want to see them do well. I think they can keep it close. If you dont like this line, maybe wait and see if it moves to 3 points before the game. I would lock it in at 3 for sure.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11/23/2022