Alright, back again after a 3-4 week last week. Turkey day was not as profitable as I wanted it to be. That was my first sub .500 week since I have started and it doesnt feel great. I feel like the sheet last week had a lot of potential, but fluke things happened like always and I got beat down.

I feel like the NFL is approaching another period where it is hard as hell to pick games. I went through this the first few weeks of the season until teams started to come into their own. Now I think teams are getting tired and injuries are starting to kick their asses, so games are a tad more unpredictable.

First bet last week was dead nuts. I was within a point of hitting the under and I got it. Another week where a 9.5 point favorite went under. This was not a trend though.

The Cowboys played pretty well considering it was a thanksgiving game. Offense performed about as expected with the interceptions and bad decisions. They struggle to settle into games when they dont have a good opening drive. This game should have gone under. There is no reason that last score should have happened, I was furious.

Pats kept it close in the evening like I was expecting. I should have just taken the regular spread and rode it. This game was a god damn shootout, which I was not expecting considering the pats offense is not high powered to say the least.

Ravens looked horrible in Jacksonville last week. I am not sure if the Ravens defense is just that bad or if Trevor Lawrence is figuring it out all the sudden. Maybe I need to keep an eye on that Jags team.

Seahawks game was basically the same story as the Ravens game. Raiders are supposed to stink. The only good thing about this game was DK and Lockett both gave me decent fantasy points (I still lost).

Eagles are in fact still good (according to their record). I still stand by the fact their schedule is pretty soft. Easy cover though.

Lastly, the Steelers made me proud. I knew I should have taken the moneyline on this game. The Colts are just not a good football team, and even though their record doesnt show it, the steelers are tough. This was my best pick of the week by far.

The betting strategy of betting the under on 9.5 point spreads is currently 3-1. I intend to keep testing this strategy to see if it levels out or continues to be strong. I may have been a bit ambitious with betting two of them last week. On to the picks.

NFL Picks YTD 22-20-1

Bills (-3.5) vs. Patriots

This honestly is just my gut feeling. Von Miller has been put on IR today, so that is something to take note of. I still think that the Bills are a decent amount better than the Patriots. I think that the Bills can go to Gillette and cover 3.5.

Vikings (-3) vs. Jets

This seems like a good bounce back game for the Vikings. They have been really not good the last couple weeks. I think this week they go play a not very good Jets team and beat up on them.

Dolphins (+3.5) vs. 49ers

Dolphins are better than what vegas is giving them here. I expect the fins to go and play well. They are playing with two WR1s. They are plenty capable of winning this game, so long as Tua is slingin the pigskin.

Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Bengals

Chiefs are good. I do not think the Bengals are as good as this spread is showing. Chiefs are going through phases of blowing out their opponents and then struggling to win. I think this week they blow the bengals out of the water.

Cowboys vs. Colts Under 43.5

Obligatory bet of betting the under on a 9.5 point spread. I think the Cowboys go to Indy and kick some ass, but I dont think the Colts get much going with the Cowboys elite defense.

Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Saints

Ill be honest with you, I hate this game all around. The bucs have screwed me too many times and the Saints suck too. I always try to bet primetime games, and this is my gut pick.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 12/1/2022