Turkey week special this week! We got some extra football to bet on this week from the NFL gods. Cant wait to get stressed out over family drama and my football bets at the same time. Going to need booze to get through it all. Lets dive into this sheet folks.
Last week was far from my best work. 2-3, and we just cant keep trending like this. Throwing a bunch of picks at the wall this week. Hopefully we come out smelling like roses after the weekend. The Bengals really screwed me last week withholding the information about Joey B, that bet shouldve been voided. Cowboys continue to dominate shitty teams, so easy W on that game. The Seahawks lost their ass in LA after Geno went down for a couple drives. I fully believe that was a winner if Geno stayed in that game. Drew Lock screwed us. Vikings somehow choked vs. the Broncos Sunday night. They did still cover by the grace of god though. I was staring down a 1-4 week if not. The Eagles/Chiefs game was a tough one. Really could have gone either way with that one and it still would have been a sweat. I aint even that mad about that L. Fuck the Eagles still though. Lets get to this Thanksgiving sized pickem this week.
NFL Picks YTD 31-22-4
Packers vs. Lions (-7.5)
Lions are rolling right now. They are at home on thanksgiving. Lions are 5-0 ATS at home against the Packers. They are 7-3 ATS overall. Packers stink, lets go Lions for the Thanksgiving lunch hour.
Commanders vs. Cowboys (-12.5)
Cowboys usually seem mediocre on thanksgiving. However, they have been high powered as hell at home this season. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS overall. 5-0 ATS at home this season. Commanders are on a downward spiral right now. This is a big spread, but I am riding with Dem Boyz at the napping hour of Thanksgiving.
49ers (ML & Under 49.5 (-125)) vs. Seahawks
This is a tough one to pick. I really don’t like the -7 here. The Niners are really not that great ATS this season. For that reason we are going with a teaser special for primetime. Niners win and the score stays low.
Dolphins vs. Jets Under 41
Dolphins will almost certainly win this game easily. I really am not a fan of the 9.5 point spread on this game as there is a lot of unknowns. Everything about this game says hot potato don’t touch it, but I gotta pick something so give me the under on black Friday.
Jaguars vs. Texans Under 48.5
Both of these teams are surprisingly good this year. My impulse is to take the Texans +1.5 at home. But the Jags have been covering like crazy. Jags are a good football team so I cant count them out. I think Ill stay under this big total number.
Bills vs. Eagles (-3)
Eagles are coming off a BIG W against the Chiefs on the road. They are back at home, they are healthy, the Bills are imploding slowly. I think the Bills continue to shit the bed and the Eagles cover at home.
Ravens (-3.5) vs. Chargers
Ravens have been flying under my radar this season. I don’t see how they don’t cover here. They are on the road, but the Chargers defense stinks so bad. Ravens have been doing really really well (7-4 ATS). Hoping to see a great primetime Lamar. Ravens flock for me this weekend baby.
Bears vs. Vikings Under 43.5
Both these teams suck. Vikings are going to win. I think the score stays reasonable. Unders are hot anyways, so give me the under in this game.
Wildcard pick of the week: Jake Ferguson anytime TD scorer (+180)
Just a special pick, since we have a holiday pickem this week. Jake Ferguson has stepped up this year and has been killing it. Love the value of this pick, take the big man to get a TD on thanksgiving.
Huge sheet this week. Happy Thanksgiving to all, lets all be thankful we get to experience another trip around the sun. Spend needed time with family or friends or both, however you choose to enjoy it. Cheers!
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 11/22/2023