As the dog days of summer wind to an end and students return to campuses all across these great United States, gamblers look at win totals and try to stake their claim. I am no different so in this article I will detail out some of the teams I like this year and others heading in the wrong direction that may serve to enrich those that heed this advice. I will not be detailing every team’s regular season win total in this vessel simply those I feel strongly about heading to the kiosk for. Without further ado let’s start in the conference of champions.
PAC-12 win totals
Arizona
2.5 Games. Over -167/Under +130
I see no guaranteed wins on this Arizona schedule. They have done themselves no favors in their non conference games scheduling SDSU to open the year in which the Aztecs will be opening their brand new stadium. Their other non-conference games are Mississippi State and FCS juggernaut NDSU both in the desert. The Pac-12 is in a state of flux with conference realignment, but I could legitimately see a world where Arizona is 0-3 in their non conference. The more likely outcome is 1-2 to start the year without Northern Arizona on the schedule this year I don’t see this wildcats team winning 2 conference games give me the under at +130 for some value
Official Pick Under 2.5 +130
University of Cal
5.5 Games. Over -113/Under -113
With even juice going both ways Vegas likes the price they have set at 5.5 games for the golden bears this year. I see 3-4 games cal should be favored in those being UC davis (an FCS that beat tulsa outright last year), UNLV, Arizona, and possibly Stanford. This Cal offense was borderline Anemic last year ranking 96th in the country in PPG. Going 5-7 Last year I think it is more likely that they repeat that performance than it is that they will be bowling in December
Official Pick Under 5.5 -113
Oregon
8.5 Games. Over -136 Under +107
Oregon with new coach Dan Lanning will be returning to where their new coach was just employed playing the Georgia Bulldogs week 1 playing that game in a true neutral site game! (Mercedes Benz in Atlanta) *Wink Nod* where I am sure it will be a 50/50 split between duck and dog fans. After losing that game I like the ducks to win the rest of their games except their game against the Utes. I think this a 10-2 team at the end of the year avoiding USC in their draw this year and all of the ducks potential scares being played in Eugene.
Official Pick Over 8.5 Games -136
USC
9.5 Games. Over -115 Under -109
A first year coach unlike any other takes the helm in Troy this year. Lincoln Riley leaving Norman like a thief in the night along with his bounty of players in the transfer portal the expectations in LA could not be higher. The main concern I have with this Trojan team will be the obvious one: a lack of talent on the Offensive and Defensive lines. That being said, the only teams that I believe will be able to truly take advantage of this are Utah and Notre Dame, both teams further down the road on this schedule. I believe that those two teams will be the their only two losses in the regular season bringing them to a mark of 10-2
Official Pick Over -115
Utah
9 Games. Over -124 Under -103
Utah comes into this year with expectations after narrowly losing the Rose Bowl to Ohio State. They are projected to be near the top of the conference yet have a slightly lower win total than the Trojans. They open the year in the swamp, a game I think will determine the ceiling of this team. I believe they will perform well in conference and they have USC at home in Salt lake. Even while being conservitive counting their wins I have 8 games they should absolutely win in Southern Utah, SDSU, ASU, OSU, WAZZOU, Arizona, Stanford, and Colorado. That means they have to win one game between Florida, USC, UCLA, and Oregon just to get a push. I Believe it is more likely they win two to three games of those four. I see 10-2 or 11-1 on this schedule.
Official pick Over -124
ACC win totals
Clemson
10.5 Games. Over +100 Under -125
Going into the season ranked 4th in the AP poll this clemson team returns a other worldy defense without its captain. Brent Venables leaving in the offseason will cause its growing pains within this program. The biggest question however in football is the level of QB play you get from your starter. I do not believe DJ Uiagalelei is an accurate enough thrower of the football to lead this team to 11 wins. Clemson has four opponents on its schedule that enter the year ranked two which they get at home in NC State and Miami. They have a schedule that they could run the table yes with Notre Dame having a first year coach and Miami not until late in November however their are too many landmines on this schedule to see them returning to CFP this year.
Official pick Under -125
Florida State
6.5 Games. Over -143 Under +115
A program trying to return to their glory years. A team that won a national championship less than a decade ago has had two coaches in the last five years and under the current one Mike Norvell has has a record of 8-13 at the university with a 6-10 record in conference. I see five games on the schedule FSU will be favored in the problem is two of your non conference games are LSU and your rival Florida so they go 2-2 in non conference. That leaves it up can the seminoles get five conference games They should beat BC, GT, and Syracuse. I just see the seminoles cant win enough toss up games in conference this year to get them to Seven wins I think Six is right on the nose.
Official Pick Under +115
NC State
8.5 Games. Over -175 Under +135
The Wolfpack enter the year with serius expectations for what feels like the first time in forever. This is a team I did not get a ton of time to watch last year. The jokes being said though about the program being able to produce NFL talent without the corresponding winning on saturdays are funny however. The wolfpack are projected to be fairly good and with a non conference that is fairly soft with Texas Tech being the best among them the over seems very possible. I am curious to see how this team will turn out -175 is simply to much juice for an relatively non proven program to go out and get 9 wins.
Official pick Under +135
Virginia
6.5 Games. Over -162 Under +125
This is a team that has lost a lot this offseason and has failed to replace talent. The transfer portal is hard on a school like Virginia, because of the rules about transferring credit to come to the school. I do not think this team will be very good. They have a higher total because of the lack of overall strength of their schedule. This will not be enough for the Cavs to get to seven wins this season.
Official pick Under +125
UNC
7.5 Games. Over +112 Under -143
The Tar heels have a few tough non conference games on their schedule going to App State and Notre Dame at home this year. I realized while writing this I have taken the under on a lot of ACC teams this year. I think this UNC team has 8 wins in them however games like going to Boone will determine this teams fate. If they can beat App State I like them to win enough toss up games down the stretch of the season and not having clemson on the schedule is a big help
Official pick Over +112
Big 12 win totals
Texas
8.5 Games. Over +100 Under -125
Quinn Ewers named the starter today in Austin. Another year blooms under signal caller and head man Steve Sarkisian and we attempt to answer the age old question at this point is Texas back? Texas because of their prestige and fan base will always have an inflated win total in the desert. I see seven games on the longhorns schedule that they should in theory win. That being said I have to see it to believe it with Texas more than any other team in the country.
Official pick Under -125
Texas Tech
5.5 Games. Over -106 Under -121
Rebuilding in the desert that is west Texas not for the faint of heart. That is exactly what first year coach Joey McGuire will attempt to do with this Red Raiders program. This schedule to put it mildly is brutal. I tend to be nervous with teams that have a 5.5 win total because the desire to make a bowl game for college kids is a factor at the end of years that cannot be ignored, however that factor will be mitigated this year. Texas Tech has Oklahoma to end the year to end the year and even with the sooners down I do not seeing them winning that game to get them bowl eligible.
Official pick Under -121
Baylor
7.5 games Over -175 Under +130
Baylor will win at least eight games this year the only question is whether you want to pay the juice and have your money tied up at that price for four months
Official pick Over -175
Kansas
2.5 Games Over -162 Under +125
A two win team from a year ago one of those being against the longhorns along with two heart breaking losses to end the year with a three point loss to TCU and a six point loss to West Virginia. I think the Jayhawks improve on that number this year I believe they can get wins against TN Tech, Duke, and either West Virginia or Iowa state. This is a team that could have their over by the end of October 1st. I believe in Lance Leipold and think this team will fight for him game in and game out.
Oklahoma State
8.5 Games Over +100 Under -125
The biggest question this year is what will the all world defense from last year look like without defensive coordinator Jim Knowles who left for the buckeyes last year. I think the cowboys will fall a bit more to the middle of the pack in the Big 12 this year. I am not a Spencer Sanders fan and have no reason to believe that this is the year that he jumps to being an great college QB. The questions at QB and defense have me bearish on this state team.
Official pick Under -125
BIG 10 win totals
Illinois
4.5 Games. Over -139 Under -109
The Illini enter year two of the Bert Bielema experience this fall. They are blessed with four games to start this year that are winnable. They start the year with Wyoming, Indiana, Virginia, and Chattanooga. The only away game of those four is at Bloomington week two. That leaves Illinois needing one win down the stretch I could see them picking that up either week seven at home vs Minnesota or the last weekend of the year against Northwestern. The Illini will pick up the mantel of playing for Bert and will be able to run the ball and play better defense. ILI
Official pick Over -139
Iowa
7.5 Games. Over -106 Under -118
All Kirk Ferentz does is turn out winners playing the most boring games of all time. Punt to win. The Hawkeyes preseason ranked opponents are Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin the first and third of which will be played in Iowa City I presume at night. I think the Hawkeyes are more likely to win 10 games than finish under 8 give me the Hawkeyes over.
Official pick Over -106
Michigan
9.5 Games. Over -129 Under +100
Fresh off their first playoff appearance the Wolverines enter the year with an elevated win total, but everyone expects a dip from last year. The problem is I don’t see this team losing 3 games. With Cade and JJ handling the QB and Blake Courum back I believe the offense will be fairly prolific. The first four weeks are a cake walk playing CO State, Hawaii, Uconn, and Maryland all in the big house. The Wolverines also get Penn State and Michigan State at home this year. They have to go to columbus to end the year, but I believe they will enter that game with 10 wins already.
Official Pick Over -129
Minnesota
7.5 Games. Over -143 Under +112
I am not a PJ Fleck believer. I think this Gophers team could easily only have five wins at the end of the year. Give me the under and lets keep it moving
Official Pick Under +112
Ohio State
11.5 Games Over +150 Under -195
Will the Buckeyes run the table? Yes. Walking 40+ points any time this team will step off the bus. I think their defense will be improved with Knowles at the helm and even if they allow some points this team they will force more turnovers than last years buckeye team. That along with the tempo the offense will play at this year will be absolutely lethal.
Official Pick Over +150
Rutgers
4 Games. Over -113 Under -113
Will be one of the Worst teams in the power 5 under.
Official Pick Under -113
SEC win Totals
Alabama
11.5 Games. Over +115 Under -148
This bet is whether or not you think the Tide will be able to stay healthy this year. If so they will not lose a game and Wil Anderson and Bryce Young will be drafted Number one and two next year in the draft. Give me the plus sign as much as I hate to deal with devil.
Official pick Over +115
Auburn
5.5 Games. Over -165 Under +129
Auburn Jesus will not allow the tigers to miss a bowl. They will still have one of the best backs in the league in Tank Bigsby and a stout as always front seven on defense. I think Zach Calzada can operate well in Harsins offense and as much as I hate the tigers out on the plains they will be playing come bowl season,
Official pick Over -165
Florida
7.5 Games. Over +113 Under -141
The gators welcome new head coach Billy Napier from Louisiana Sun Belt fame this year. They decided to open his first season in a real dandy opening the year with Utah, Kentucky, USF, and Tennessee. All of those will be in the swamp except against the Vols. Even in my most optimistic calculations I can only see seven wins this year for the gators which I think would be a fine season for a first year head coach in Gainesville
Kentucky
8 Games. Over -124 +100
Kentucky under Mark Stoops is slowly transforming into the Iowa of the SEC. Which is even better since Iowa is the main job stoops would want if he were ever to leave the south. This team I think will find a win to win games they maybe should not. At the worst I will be pushing this bet.
Official Pick Over -124
Ole Miss
8 Games. Over +100 Under -125
This team won 10 games for the first time in its history last year. Jaxson Dart no that is not a misspelling he really spells it like that takes over signal calling for the Rebs this year. This team will fall from the orbit that was last season with diminished QB play and poor defensive play. I enjoy Lane Kiffin, but at best this team wins 8 games and pushes.
Official Pick Under -125
South Carolina
6.5 Games. Over +110 Under -139
I like Shane Beamer I really do, I just don’t see seven wins. Not on this schedule.
Official Pick Under -139
Tennessee
8 Games. Over -110 Under -115
This Offense will be one of the top 3 in the SEC. The problem is that this defense will be more porous than a sponge. This team will be a ton of fun to watch playing both Georgia and Alabama equals two losses guaranteed. I do not see this team running the table outside of those two games either.
Official Pick Under -115
Texas A&M
9 Games Over -108 Under -118
All the oil money in the world and what does it get you with Jimbo Fisher as your head coach? 8 Wins.
Under -118
Vanderbilt
2.5 Games Over +100 Under -118
This team will hit its over by the end of September. Hawaii, Elon, Wake Forest, and Northern IL there is three wins in that four game stretch.
Official pick Over +100
Arkansas
7 Games. Over -125 Under +100
Let me start off with a statement prepared by my attorney.
“Reed Olson is legally required to bet the Razorbacks under on regular season wins every year while Sam Pittman is employed as the Hogs have over performed expectations every year he has done so.”
Now that is out of the way lets get down to brass tax. This schedule for Arkansas is brutal and whoever scheduled this non conference schedule should be in either jail or prison. The Hogs play Cincinnati, BYU, Missouri State (Bobby Petrino), and Liberty. The hogs will have KJ Jefferson coming back as a very dark horse Heisman candidate and both of the coordinators returning for a third straight season. All of those are signs of success and the hogs will either rise to the occasion of their schedule and keep momentum under Sam Pittman or fall back to earth after 9 wins last year.
Official Pick Legally Under for myself (For you take the over…)