Hi there! This is something a little different and I am clearly not Reed. So with that being said lets start with everyone’s least favorite thing, introductions.

I am Logan, Reed’s best friend and also the admin/creator of this blog website. I am the man behind the man behind the CFB pickem sheet. I basically do everything besides make the post, that is Reed’s job. I am, like Reed, also a football fan both CFB and NFL, and enjoy placing bets and picking sides.

It’s worth mentioning I am a Cowboys, SIU, and Tennessee fan, so I may be more partial to those teams. With that being said I had the itch to post my NFL picks to see how I do and to keep track of my record. These posts will typically be pretty short, as I can be picky with NFL picks. All that out of the way lets get into some football talk.

It should be prefaced that this is not gambling advice and I am not trying to give you good bets to place. All these picks are simply my opinion and the way I see these games going down. Either trail me, fade me, or just disregard all together. But don’t be coming at my throat when my picks do poorly.

This season of NFL has been wild and all over the place to say the least. For the first 4 weeks I simply could not pick a winner. I was getting absolutely bodied, because I had to throw out everything I thought I knew about the NFL and the teams from last season.

The Colts screwed me twice and the Bengals choked harder than a porn star. We simply cannot have these things happening if we are trying to get our bag folks. Last week I was on fire however, I feel like I finally have a slight grasp on this league and what the hell is going on.

Last week I placed 7 bets and went 6-1, for a gain of like 10 units or something stupid like that. I started my day off by watching the Bills play the Steelers, I had taken a two leg parlay: Bills -6.5 & Under 51.5 total points. This was the biggest brain play I think I could’ve had, besides the Sunday night game. Handily hit this bet.

Next bets were Chargers (-1.5) vs. the Browns. Also Titans (1.5) vs. the Commanders. Both of these bets were a sweat but once again the Browns are simply not put together enough to do a damn thing against the Chargers and Justin Herbert. The Commanders will be bet against almost every week because of two reasons. 1. I hate Carson Wentz and he sucks so badly. 2. The commanders are simply not a good football team.

Obviously I had the Cowboys ML, and boy was that a glorious game to win against the Rams. I think that win is just what this Cowboys team needed to prove to themselves and others that they have what it takes to win in this league, especially against the Eagles this week in prime time.

I had taken a super boost from the man himself, Pat McAfee Falcons (-21.5), Browns (+7.5), and Cowboys (+10.5). Nothing more to say about this than this hit easily (Thank yew Tone).

Last pick of the night was the Bengals (+9.5) & Under 53.5 parlay. This was a great game to watch, I’m a big Burrow guy and watching the Ravens play is always a show. Great prime time game and a great hit.

My only loss of last week was another shot at a parlay to hit. I took the Chiefs (-1.5) & Under 56.5. This was a crushing loss, with the Chiefs just barely squeaking out the win and not covering such a small line that I moved. The Under 56.5 was just a poor pick. The Raiders finally decided to get their shit together and score some damn points which is exactly the last thing I expected.

Yes I know I am late this week with missing Thursday night football, but I am writing this as this game is ending and boy am I glad I excluded any picks from this game anyways. Maybe next week. Also I have a full time job and stuff to do, so forgive me for being late. Also didn’t want to take the wind out from under Reed’s CFB sheet this week, go check that out here btw: http://5.75.134.57:4080/reed-olsons-ramblin-gamblin-cfb-pickem-year-2-week-7%ef%bf%bc/

We are about to the picks I promise I got one more section of this before we get into the picks. I am a curious person and always looking up stats during football games. So obviously it only makes sense that I keep an eye on NFL trends ATS and Total points. This league this year is a DAWGS game. Dawgs overall this year are covering the spread 59.7% of the time at a 46-31-3 record.

The underdogs are even more effective on the road covering 60.87% of the time on the road at a 28-18-1 record. Now it should be noted this is a trend that is going down slightly but teasing dawgs and the unders is my new favorite past time.

The league has also seemed to be a defensive battle or the offenses this year just suck that bad, I can’t tell. The under has been hitting 59.5% of the time at a record of 47-32 to the under. Lets keep these stats in mind for week 6 folks, its pretty telling about the odds makers decisions and which way these games could go. Without any more rambling (fitting, no pun intended) lets get to my picks this week.

Buccaneers (-2.5) & Over 39.5 (-128) vs. Steelers

Now I know that I said the dawgs have been barking at the under this season but hear me out. This buccaneers team is getting to the point where they need to start proving something. Brady has not looked great, probably as a side effect of the divorce. I think this week we get a locked in Brady this week, they get it done in Pittsburg, and cover the 2.5 points, this is a moved line. The over at a lower number is the move here. The Bucs have the firepower and the shooter to score points here, and the steelers defense is struggling without TJ Watt. I also think this week Pickett really settles into his position at starting QB with the trust from the great Mike Tomlin. Pickett will have a couple tuds this week. Over 39.5 is hitting.

Bengals (-1.5) vs. Saints

I understand the reasoning behind this line. The saints are more than capable of putting up a fight against the Bengals and keeping it a close game. That being said Burrow is a good QB. No question about it. The big cats have been coming close to finishing games but have came up short a lot. This is a week we see Joey B ball out and cover this spread.

Rams (-10) vs. Panthers

The Rams are still a good team. They have had some struggles with Satfford with he is still good at playing the QB position. He is a tough guy and is plenty capable of coming back to redeem himself. The Panthers are not good at football. Baker stinks, and they are without a solid head coach to keep the team cohesive. I am not worried that this is a road game for the Rams, they are plenty capable to cover this spread against such an atrocious Panthers team.

Bills vs. Chiefs Over 53.5

I think if this game was in Buffalo this would be a different pick, I would be taking the bills to cover. But this game is in Kansas City. Arrowhead is not an easy place to play at, its loud and Mahomes and Kelce are comfortable there. Josh Allen is still so good and will be balling with Diggs. Mahomes is bound to keep it tight with the Bills and will stay right in the game down till the wire. Kelce had a staggering 4 TDs against the raiders last week and I may take a flyer on Kelce anytime scorer. This is going to be a battle and would be more worthy for a prime time game. Over is hitting.

Cowboys (+6.5) vs Eagles

Alright, this is the game I am going to be chewing my nails off and sitting on the edge of my seat. I may not know much, but I know the NFC East. I have been watching this rivalry my entire life and very rarely do these teams ever take off with a massive lead, no matter how good one or the other is. I have been gallivanting all over twitter about how the Eagles are frauds and they are not as good as people make them out to be. I intend to keep my stance until I am proven otherwise, and remember good teams win, great teams cover. This spread is just too much for this rivalry in prime time. Give me my boys and Cooper Kush to get it done in Philly. Might sprinkle a little on the ML too.

Chargers (-0.5) & Under 51.5 (+102) vs. Broncos

Back to my ole reliable for this game, a teaser (sort of). This is not an equal parts teaser, so its really just a two leg parlay with the lines moved. I think this pick is great value at +102 odds. Double your money with no sweat. I absolutely love the Chargers in this game. Justin Herbert is a freaking stud, and I think the bolts have not been performing how they should be for a couple weeks. This week they show out in prime time. That being said we have Russ on the other side of the field. Russell Wilson is simply not a good QB anymore, I don’t give a damn what my father says. Russ no longer cooks like he did with Seattle. Russ cooks a fully loaded hotdog dipped in ice cream now. Hes old and needs to hang it up. The Broncos may lose the rest of the season honestly, so for that reason, Russ wont score much, and the bolts are going to handily beat the ponies, this bet will hit. Bolt Up baby.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10/13/2022