Hey! Welcome back! We are back in the saddle for week 7 after a bit of a rocky start for the sheet in week 6. Just remember these are my personal picks and not necessarily good betting advice. I am kind of a numpty apparently and cannot get a good grasp on the NFL this season.

Lets start out with some needed housekeeping like admitting I was wrong and going over last weeks picks. Yes I was wrong and we are going to talk about it. I will also cover the trends of the NFL after another week of games. Strap in folks.

First and foremost, yes I was wrong about the Eagles. They are in fact good, I was just in denial out of hatred and rivalries. HOWEVER, lets not get it twisted. Cooper Rush is still our backup QB who has been passing for 200 yards or less per game and had 3 INTs against the Eagles. Ill leave it at that. We’ll see how this game goes in December Eagles fans. We will be back.

Last week I started off Sunday with the Bengals 1.5 hitting. This felt good to win because I was very confident going into the day with this pick. This was still a sweat but they got it done for the cover thank god. Andy Dalton the red rifle was making me nervous though.

At the same time as the Bengals game the Bucs and TB12 was shitting the bed against a Steelers team who seems in shambles on paper but they clearly can make it work. Who would’ve thought that the Steelers would win outright with Mitch at the helm to finish the game. I am crushed. Although America wins when Tom Brady looses.

The Rams in the mid afternoon games were stressing me out. I had no doubt in my mind that the Rams were gonna cover -10, but boy they made it tough huh. They were down early and I was ready to jump ship. Glad that Matt Stafford and company decided to get it together and pull out the cover.

Bills and Chiefs was supposed to be a barn burner but ended up being the most boring game of the day and played like a Thursday night football game. I should’ve been more concerned when Tony Romo went all Nostradamus on us and predicted that the game would end 24-20. Should’ve listened to my own advice when I said unders have been hitting.

The late game I was getting absolutely torched on Twitter about my Cowboys shitting the bed the first half. It appears the magic has run out for Cooper Rush and I am ready for Dak to be back. The worst part is they still should’ve covered +6.5 but nope. I am ready to move on from this hell of a night.

Ok last but not least certainly, Chargers -0.5 & Under 51.5. Once again my weird teasers hit and made me happy with ending the week on a win. Russ looked fresh for a little but and then just could not get it done. Even with overtime in this game I was not even a little worried. Chargers did not look great in this game though.

For another week the league is starting to align again towards 50/50. The trend of dogs covering is slimming up. Dogs are now covering the spread 57.8% of the time at a record of 52-38-3. This could mean that Vegas is catching up and trying to get their money back. Lets not get tricked by lines anymore and think like the odds makers. Remember Vegas always knows.

Unders are still hitting pretty consistently though. That percentage for that has hardly moved. The Under is hitting 60.9% of the time at a record of 56-36. The NFL just does not have a lot of high powered offenses anymore and there are some pretty solid defenses out there.

Overall I went 3-3 last week, so not enough to beat the juice but we were close. Depending how much your units are, we are not down much, so lets have a winning week this week. On to the picks finally.

NFL Picks YTD 3-3

Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Saints

This line may or may not be a trap. Maybe this will finally be a good TNF game. I do really like the line being half a point under a field goal. Recently games seem to be being decided by a field goal, so I think the Cardinals can get it done here. I also know Andy Dalton is not very consistent and the Cardinals have a fairly good team. I think they are flying under the radar and get this cover at home.

Cowboys (-1.5) & Under 53.5 vs. Lions

Truth be told I am teasing this to make me feel better. We just need to see green from the Cowboys for another week. The main line being at 7 seems not bad to me either, but I want to stay on the safe side here and move the lines around. Say it with me folks: When you cant pick a line, just tease it and hope for the best.

Packers (-4.5) vs. Commanders

Aaron Rodgers has been getting absolutely annihilated by the NFC East. I do not see that trend continuing against an already horrible Commanders team, and now Carson Wentz is out to add a cherry on top. No way in hell the packers let this game be closer than 5 points. They handily win and get the cover here.

Chiefs (-3) vs. 49ers

I still think the Chiefs are good here. I also do not know a ton about the 49ers team this year. My gut feeling is Chiefs -3 and I do not have much more to add here. Chiefs -3 hitting.

Dolphins (-7) vs. Steelers

Originally I was leaning towards Steelers +7 here. I then discovered that Tua has been cleared and is planned to return this week. I think the Dolphins team before Tua got hurt was legit. They were balling all over people with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as basically two number 1 WRs. I think they pick back up where they left off and they have themselves a day at home.

Patriots (-7.5) vs. Bears

Lastly I am taking the pats at Gillette to get it done against Fields and the bears. Justin Fields has not looked good this year at all, and the bears as a whole is just disappointing for all those bears fans out there. Money Mac Jones will be back at the helm of the Pats team and needs to do some proving to keep his spot away from Zappe. I think Belichick gets the team rallied for this game and they kick some ass.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10/19/2022