Christmas Edition!
Merry Christmas you filthy animals. To the 10s of you that read this thing, I appreciate you. Got a nice long list of picks this week. We have a PACKED week of football ahead of us.
Alright, getting out in front of this sheet early this week since last week I was slacking and didn’t get it out early. This week I will do better and get my full sheet in. Back to our regularly scheduled programming. Last weeks sheet was mediocre. 2-2, so keeps us at the same record percentage wise. Lets put together a nice wining week this week shall we?
Chiefs looked better this week, however they still dont seem to be playing as good as they have in the past. First have they seemed to struggle against a real bad Patriots team. Still, they put it together in the second half for the cover on the road. Ill gladly take that.
Cowboys were disappointing to say the least. Now that we have some time away from the game and the over reactions I would like to share my thoughts. Buffalo is a tough place to play, and it seems the Bills are starting to get back to their old ways. Bills are far and away the best 7-7 team out there right now. Tough loss, Cowboys got an even more tough one next week, but I still believe.
Ravens continue to ball out. I absolutely love watching the Ravens play. Lamar Jackson looks like he is having fun out there, I am sure this is a super bowl caliber team. Glad I took them to cover on the road.
Cry Eagles Cry. I’m not even the slightest bit upset that this pick lost. The Eagles losing lost me a little bit of money, but puts the Cowboys to the theoretical 2nd place in the NFC. Nothing but good news all around.
As far as trends go we are starting to see a little movement, but not much. Away favorites are now the ones covering the most with them covering 54.9% of the time. Unders picked up a little more again after this past week. Unders are hitting 56.5% of the time. The book makers are really struggling with keeping up with the over/unders.
NFL Picks YTD 41-35-5
Saints vs. Rams Under 46.5
Rams seem to be playing better, but this number is too sweet not to take. Both of these teams have low scoring offenses. I don’t see this game getting too out of hand. I could be wrong though. Thursday night games are hard to pick. I will also share these stats:
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New Orleans’s last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of New Orleans’s last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams’s last 6 games at home
Bills (-12.5) vs. Chargers
Bills are turning this team around. Chargers are spiraling. Road favorites are the trend anyways. Bills blow out the Chargers on the road in LA.
Packers (-4.5) vs. Panthers
Panthers are really really bad. Packers got showed up last week. I don’t think they win by any less than a touchdown Sunday afternoon. Go Pack Go.
Cowboys ML (+102) vs. Dolphins
Another pick not to take if you like winning money. If I am being honest I hate the other games at the 3 o’clock hour and I am going to be rooting for the Cowboys anyways, may as well put some money on it. In terms of pure stats, this game is like Goliath vs. Goliath. My only hope is that the Dolphins still haven’t beat very many good teams. Need the defense to show out big in this game.
Patriots vs. Broncos Under 34.5
This is service academy level under number. I don’t like either team to cover the 7 points. This is an awful Sunday night game. I will pray for the biggest snooze fest of all time. This is by far the lowest under I have ever taken.
Raiders vs. Chiefs (-10)
Chiefs have been playing better. The Raiders have been playing worse. Chiefs playing at Arrowhead will always be tough. I think the Raiders wont be able to handle the cold in KC on Christmas afternoon. Chiefs cover big at home.
Giants (+11.5) vs. Eagles
12 points in an NFC East match up?? I don’t care how much better the Eagles are than the Giants, NFC East games are always tough. Giants seem like they got a guy in DeVito, and I love it. I think the Eagles win this one for sure, but I say they keep it within 11.
Ravens vs. 49ers Over 46.5
One hell of a Christmas night game. Some would even say a potential Super Bowl preview game? Both of these teams are power houses, so give me the over. I think we got ourselves a Christmas shootout.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 12/19/2023