Alrighty, went even last week. The games I did lose on, I got absolutely SLAUGHTERED. Commanders shit the bed somehow against DA BEARS, congrats to Justin Fields. Bills struggled over the pond, like I had thought they might. Should have seen that coming. Once again the BRAND NEW LIONS showed us they have turned it all the way around. I was surprised to see the Vikings keep up as well as they did, but honestly I called that too. The Cowboys… No comments at this time. Raiders won yet again. Ok house keeping from last week out of the way. I would like to go back to the betting trends like I did last week..

This year there are two key trends I would like to point out. The away team is covering the spread 56.2% of the time. Of those away favorites, the away team is covering 58.6% when they are the favorites, and 54.6% of the time when they are road dogs. Another interesting part on the spread, home favorites and home dogs are only covering 45.5% and 41.4% respectively. That’s absolutely bananas. Of all game in the NFL the games are hitting the under 56.4% of time time. Lets keep this in mind when picking this week…

NFL Picks YTD 11-11-2

Broncos vs. Chiefs Under 47.5

Broncos games have gone over in 9 of their last 10 games. They are also 10.5 point dogs on the road. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games on the road. Lets disregard all that. I just dont think the Broncos are going to be able to score at all in Arrow Head here. I think this is an incredibly boring TNF. Lets hope for a snooze fest.

Ravens (-4) vs. Titans

This game is in London which kind of skews the stats. However, Ravens are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games on the road. Road favorites are covering 58.6% of the time. I think the Ravens pull out the cover in London.

49ers (-6.5) vs. Browns

49ers are just a wagon man. This line just seems really low, and maybe its too good to be true. I just cant fathom the Niners winning by anything less than a touchdown. Go Niners in Cleveland.

Lions (-3) vs. Buccaneers

Road favorites, you already know the stat. Now lets look at the Lions exactly. Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games vs the Bucs. They are a whopping 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games. I think the Lions are a good football team, I think the Bucs are not very good. Lets go Lions baby!

Bills vs. Giants Under 44.5

Giants games have gone under in 5 of their last 6 games. The total has gone under in 4 of the Bill’s last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants. I think the Giants just suck that bad, they may not score at all. The Bills are too good. Take the under.

Cowboys (-2.5) vs. Chargers

Maybe this will be a trend. Cowboys win two games by a mile, then get smacked. I am looking for the Cowboys to have a get right game Monday night. The Cowboys are historically better on the road, then at home. They are road favorites. Everything is pointing towards Cowboys covering here. Lets go Cowboys.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10/11/2023