Alright, I think I speak for everyone’s picks when I say we got slaughtered last week. My picks for the sheet was able to hang on for a 3-2 week. I am glad I stuck with 5 picks last week. I was originally planning to have by biggest sheet of the year last week but something smelled fishy with a bunch of those games. Glad I refrained.

The Jags! They pull out a big value win for us. This was the only pick that really saved the value last week for us. Looking at this Giants and Commanders game, I really should have accounted for Tyrod Taylor here. If Danny Dime had played I think that game turns out very different. That Cardinals vs Seahawks pick was dead on the money with the under. There was more points than I thought, but still a boring game. Moving on to the Fins and Eagles game. I stand with my pick, the Dolphins are a great team and that was a good game, but the god damn Eagles BS (Brotherly Shove) is unstoppable. The Fins couldn’t get off the field! Then last night on MNF I had to sweat out that Under. That one was too close for comfort but the Vikings held on for the under.

The trends are finally leveling out to where we usually see the percentages. BIG moves this week ATS. First off the favorites straight up are hitting 63.2% of the time. Favorites ATS are basically hitting 51% of the time across the board now. So dawgs are no longer hitting. We can see if that changes this week. I suspect it will not. The Unders are still bullet proof seemingly with the under hitting 61% of the time. Lets get to the picks with this information.

NFL Picks YTD 19-14-2

Buccaneers vs. Bills (-2.5 & Under 48.5 -127)

I hate the under. I hate the spread. When in doubt tease it out. This is the first teaser I have done this season I believe. Both these teams are not great ATS, but their unders are hitting a lot. I like this teaser a lot.

Patriots vs. Dolphins (-9.5)

Dolphins are 5-0 ATS against the pats in the last 5 matchups. Dolphins are also 5-2 ATS over their last 7. They have had a bit of a dip in the last couple games. They always play the Pats hard, especially at home. Pats stink, and we know how the Dolphins play against bad teams. Big spread here, but I think we see the high powered offense from the Fins again. Looking forward to this game.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Under 46.5

Chiefs play better at home. Broncos stink. I don’t think anyone is getting style points in this one. I know the Chiefs are rolling right now, but I think they win handily but keep it under the total. This game is going to be so boring I can feel it. Be prepared for a plate full of T Swift.

Bears vs. Chargers Under 46.5

Bears overs have been hitting a lot, but this total is pretty high for these teams. The chargers unders are on fire. Chargers have been sputtering pretty badly the last few games. I think the chargers win here, not sure about the 8.5 point spread, so lets just go with this under. If both these QBs get hot though this under is dead in the first half so beware.

Raiders vs. Lions (-8.5)

Everything about this game is screaming to take the Raiders, but I just cant do it. Let me tell you this, Lions are 7-1 ATS at home in their last 8 home games. They are 5-1 straight up at home in their last 6 at home. Raiders have only covered 3 of their last 7 overall. 95% of the money is coming in on the Lions spread early. This is a big spread but the Lions need a big bounce back week at home to keep the BRAND NEW LIONS firing on all cylinders.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10/24/2023