What a week last week was. Football betting in all varieties is just a complete mess. Somehow managed to squeak out a 2-4 record last week, which in all honesty isnt that bad. I got absolutely torched by the football gods last week and I need to pull it together this week. I do have some tough picks to make however. Lets do some quick recaps of last weeks shit show.

Not sure what I was thinking taking the over in the Pats game. The under has been hitting all the time and I dont know why I thought this game would be any different. I suppose I was hoping The Jets would put up a ton of points? I had the pleasure of talking to the one and only Mike Olson this afternoon and he was pretty confident in the Pats under plays moving forward.

Man. The Saints game was such a heart breaker. Saints just couldnt get anything going on offense, meanwhile the Eagles sputtered on both sides of the ball all of the first half. I thought for sure I would just barely cover in this game, but of course the Eagles did their thing to come back. Saints may not be as for real as we thought, but definitely still a team to bet on. Eagles I cant say much about at this point.

Chargers did not look as good as I anticipated. Steelers however look great with Justin Fields right now. I assume they are going to ride that train until the wheels fall off. Russ is never going to cook again, so for the time being bet the Steelers? I expect the Chargers to have a get right game coming up.

Wow was I wrong about Andy Dalton. The Red Rifle was all the way on Sunday. Is Andy Dalton going to turn this team around? I seriously doubt it, but I guess I cant count them out every week anymore.

First teaser of the year was a no doubt. Only 39 points scored that game and the Chiefs win. Wasnt pretty but they got the job done. Also, no T-Swift sightings that night so thats good.

The Bills looked absolutely dominant against the Jags. I really dont understand how Trevor Lawrence was so bad in the first half, he couldnt hit the broad side of a barn if it was running at him. Worked in my favor though, as always Josh Allen is an ABSOLUTE DUDE. Bills cover with no problem and give me the second win of the week.

Definitely had some shifts in betting trends this week worth noting. First of all away favorites are winning straight up 69.2% of the time at a 9-4 record. Away teams are covering more at 56.5%. Specifically Away favorites are covering more but not by much. Lastly as we all knew the under plays are hitting left and right, 57.4% to the under right now.

NFL Picks YTD 8-9

Cowboys (ML & Under 51.5 (-112)) vs. Giants

I really hate everything about this game as a Cowboys fan. Dallas has gotten their asses handed to them in their last 2, they cant do shit on either side of the ball. However, this is a got to have it game for the Cowboys. Its a road divisional game. The Giants are not good, yet somehow not horrible in the same breathe. Cowboys HAVE to get something going this week and prove they are not the bottom of the barrel in the NFC least. Taking Dallas to win and the Under.

Jaguars vs. Texans Under 45.5

This game is going to be all the Texans. Jags arent doing much right now. Plus lets look at these historical trends. Under has hit in 5 of the last 7 Jags games. 6 of the last 7 road games vs the Texans have gone under for the Jags. I think this is a low scoring match with all the work being done by the Texans.

Commanders (+3.5) vs. Cardinals

Commanders looked real good on Monday night with Jayden Daniels. The Cardinals really have surprised me this year, but honestly I am a Kyler Murray hater. Away teams have been covering most of the time. I think the Commies give them a run for their money.

Bills (+118) vs. Ravens

Both these teams seem to be hitting their stride right now. I do think though that the Bills have come into their own a little faster. The Ravens started 0-2 and then beat my Cowboys who basically gave it to them. The Bills just seem like the right pick here and its great value.

Seahawks vs. Lions (-3.5)

I honestly have not paid much attention to the Seahawks this year. I also have not heard much noise coming from the PNW about them either. Lions are still playing very well and playing at home on top of it. I think the Lions cover at home.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 9/25/2024