Huge week last week for the sheet. Ended the week with a 4-1 record, more than enough to make some money if you took the bets. Really need to keep this train going, gotta get that undefeated week. I feel like as we are coming into week 5 we are starting to know what teams are about and what to expect. Unfortunately there has been a lot of injuries this year already and I am sure that will impact how games end. It is currently 3:45pm as I write this sheet. I have been working since 5am. I have a very limited time before I need to go back to work for a few hours. Lets get some quick recaps in and get to the picks.

I may not know everything about the NFL, but damn do I know my Cowboys. I knew they would play the giants tough, but I knew the opening spread was way too high. Glad I get another teaser win.

Boy was that Texans and Jags game a sweat for the under. The total actually changed to 44.5 before the game. Either way you still would have covered with the total getting to 44. That was far too close for comfort, but feels good to win a total bet. Jags scored much more than I anticipated.

JAYDEN DANIELS IS A DUDE. I hate the Commanders, but god damn do they look hot right now. They lead the NFC east and seemingly cannot be stopped on offense. Its unfortunate the Cowboys lost Dan Quinn to the Commanders because I love that dude, but good for him getting it done in Washington. Interested to see the tax put on the Commanders going forward.

I seem to have forgotten that the Sunday night game would be played in Baltimore. I should have taken that into consideration when making that pick. Lamar and the Ravens certainly look like they have bounced back from the terrible start they had. I still think the Bills are a good football team, just not their night.

Lions looked pretty damn good to be honest. Jared Goff could not miss in this game. Things got a little close towards the end of the game but they pulled out the cover. Lions continue to make money.

NFL Picks YTD 12-10

Buccaneers vs. Falcons (-1.5)

Bucs absolutely took a dump on the Eagles last week. However, Kirk and the Falcons have been looking pretty damn good themselves, even when it seems like they are out of it they find a way to get right back in it. I really think the Falcons win this, 2 points feels fair to me. Win by a FG here.

Ravens (-2.5) vs. Bengals

From what I have seen of the Bengals this year they stink. They cant get anything going offensively and cant cover anything. I think the Ravens beat them up in every facet of the game. Ravens win big on the road. This number feels soft to me.

Browns vs. Commanders (-3)

Honestly, it feels like we just pick the Commanders until it quits paying out. This team is a wagon right now. The Browns havent done much thus far. Lets go Commies.

Packers (-3) vs. Rams

Rams have been beaten up this year so far with injuries. Packers just got Jordan Love back. They looked a bit rough last year, but I think the Cheese Heads cover here.

Cowboys vs. Steelers Over 43.5

My commitment to making a pick for every time slot continues. I hate picking this game so much. I think TJ Watt is going to absolutely abuse our offensive line and Dak. My only hope is this is a high scoring game.

Saints vs. Chiefs (-5.5)

The Chiefs recent history does not make me feel good about this game. This line seems high, but Vegas knows something I dont I am sure. Chiefs have been bailed out in all their games. Maybe this game they get a good tempo going and blow out the Saints.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10/2/2024