Really starting to pick up some steam on this NFL Season, I hope I can keep er going. back to back weeks with 1 loss on the sheet. This week we went 5-1, the one loss 100% on me. That was a bad pick. Feels like most of the teams are starting to be a little more consistent which makes making picks a little easier. Recap time.

Took the Falcons on that Thursday night game last week and man what a sweat that was. Baker and the boys (Mike Evans) were looking pretty hot. God Bless Kirk Cousins, he really saved my ass on that pick. Good teams cover damn it.

Ravens was much closer than I was anticipating, still came out with a win in that one as well. Did not like the overtime factor, but Tucker is the best to ever do it and gets the cover in OT. Ravens left a lot to be desired in the first half, I am not sure if it was just because it was a divisional matchup or what.

Commanders are looking real hot right now with Jayden Daniels. The man just cant be stopped. Nothing more to say, just an absolute domination.

Packers win big on the road in LA. The Rams definitely played hard, but the Packers were able to seal it up in the final minutes of the 4th quarter.

Cowboys over was just a bad pick. I should have know that the offense wasnt going to do shit that game. I am very surprised how well the Cowboys defense played without their best defensive players. Honestly I was just glad the Cowboys pulled out the win. I should have just trusted them to cover the 2.5 points as dogs.

Chiefs finally looked like their old selves on Monday night. Chiefs are certainly still the Chiefs, them boys can play some damn ball. 5.5 felt like such a bad number to bet on, but watching that game it really was never a doubt.

Some interesting trends I am looking at this week. Away favorites are killing the game. They are winning straight up 68.2% of the time. Away favorites are also covering 60% of the time with a 12-8-2 record. Pretty interesting. It looks like the books are starting to catch up to the low scoring games. The totals are getting closer to 50/50, however the under is still hitting 51.9% of the time.

NFL Picks YTD 17-11

49ers vs. Seahawks (+3.5)

This is a really tough game to call, usually the Thursday night game is that way. Let me tell you why I like the Seahawks here. Hawks are 10-3 straight up when playing the 49ers at home in their last 13 matchups. The 49ers starting kicker is out with a right ankle injury. Again its a home game for Seattle. DK and Noah Fant look like they will play, they have had full practices the last two days. I just think the 49ers havent been able to get anything going and they are very beat up right now. I wouldnt be surprised if the Seahawks stole this win at home.

Jaguars vs. Bears (-1.5)

Bears seem to be figuring it out recently. Jags are struggling still. I hate picking London games, but give me DA BEARS over the pond. 71% of the bets are on the Bears spread right now.

Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Saints

Tampa Bay is about to face some adversity as a city. If there is something that can really bring a team together and rally for a city its a natural disaster. Hope everyone in Tampa stays safe. One of my sisters is living there but has evacuated, I hope all that cannot will be able to stay safe through Milton. Bucs are coming off a tough loss and it feels like the Saints are falling apart at the seams. Bucs dominate on the road I think.

Lions vs. Cowboys Under 52.5

This is going to be a very hard game for both teams. These two teams have a sort of hidden rivalry I feel. Cowboys are at home. I just dont think either offense is going to get moving this much to hit the over. I will be taking Dallas ML on the side.

Bengals (-3.5) vs. Giants

This is a must win game for the Bengals. They are a 1-4 team and I feel like they are more capable than that. Away favorites have been hitting. I think the Bengals win out in New Jersey.

Bills (-2.5) vs. Jets

Truthfully, I hate this pick. The Jets just fired their HC. Allegedly Aaron Rodgers is driving that team right now. Its always a bad idea to bet against Aaron Rodgers in any situation. However, I cant not pick the Bills. The Jets are not that good. Josh Allen is a dude clearly. Its basically a home game for the Bills, they arent going that far. 2.5 is a nice safe number, I like the Bills here. Side note – back to back prime time games in Metlife? Whats up with that?

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of 10/9/2024