I got absolutely cooked last week. Not great Jim. Just a measly 1-4 on the sheet picks, we just cant have that. Missed the under on the Bills game by just 3 points. Falcons laid a fat egg on Sunday. Are the Falcons bad? Fraudulent even? Speaking of Fraudulent. The Cowboys played real bad in Chicago. Bad defense, couldnt establish any offense. CeeDee is out. Just bad vibes all around. Wont make that mistake again I guess. Chiefs finally pulled through, as I knew they would. The Ravens though.. yikes, not a good look. The Lions however did look good Monday night. I like the Lions to keep it up, will be making some money on them I hope.

As for stats this week. Main stat line I am looking at league wide is away teams. Specifically away favorites. Away favorites are covering 60% of the time right now, with favorites in general covering 53.2%. Seems like totals are going under more often, so I guess make more of those picks strategically? Unders are hitting 54.2% of the games.

NFL Picks YTD 8-9

Seahawks (ML -130) vs. Cardinals

Gotta win early this week. I have never trusted Kyler Murray. I think this is not a matter of the Cardinals being inherently bad, but the fact that the Seahawks are coming alive offensively. They are coming off a huge win AT Pittsburgh. Away favorite. Sam Darnold. Lets go.

Bonus Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 80+ Receiving Yards (-133)

Vikings vs. Steelers (Over 40.5)

Early morning football in London. Typically these London games go under (about 57% of the time). But these two teams have good offenses. If they travel well, I think they hit this over pretty well. Lets put on a show for London!

Commanders vs. Falcons (Under 45.5)

If the Commanders are smart they will sit Jayden Daniels another week. Make sure he is ready to go before throwing him back to the wolves. If that happens, I think this Under is an easy pick. Commanders wont be as high powered as they could be. Falcons offense stumbled hard last week. Give me the Under.

Ravens (-3) vs. Chiefs

Not a Chiefs believer in this one. They have struggled against all of their opponents. Ravens looked bad last week, but I really think they show up for this one. This game as the potential to be a barn burner, but I just know Ravens are going to go disappoint Chiefs fans everywhere. Hopefully King Henry cleans up those fumbles though.

Packers vs. Cowboys (Under 47.5)

If this loses its because the Cowboys are truly awful, or they are 100% back. Based off the last week or 2 I think this is an easy under. Cowboys offense is going to be a little rough, missing Tyler Booker on the line, CeeDee to help Pickens out. Plus we got Micah on the other side chasing Dak down this time. I think this is a defense battle, and the Cowboys D looks rough too.

Bengals vs. Broncos (-7.5)

I hope Broncos run this one up. Lets give Bo Nix a confidence boost this week. Bengals without Joe Burrow, traveling to Mile High. I like the Broncos to win easily and mightily.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/25/2025