YTD 23-20-1 +3 Units

A positive week after firing a 34 play card. I went 18-15-1 this week so not very much white meat, but in this business up is up and your only as good as your last week and last bet. The parlay of the week is 0-2 down two units with ⅔ of the legs cashing both weeks, but close does not count in the parlay business so I will attempt to rectify that outcome this weekend. Week 2 usually does not have the glamor of week one matchups along with that though I have another set of data points to reference with teams having actually played games this year. Every year a team is different in the way they come together throughout the year. After week 2 the season will be a sixth of the way done for most teams so small sample sizes are the name of the game in picking winners so on to the picks.

Sides YTD 14-11-1

Louisville vs UCF (-5.5)

Last week I backed the cardinals and they preceded to lay an absolute egg in the old carrier dome. I read a tweet this week from Ralph Michaels on twitter this week that said “When a team losses game one as an away fav and is on the road again for game 2 like louisville they are 1-12-1 ATS (7.7%)”. Give me the knights in orlando friday night.

Alabama (-20.5) vs Texas

The crimson tide enter Austin after cruising to a 55 point win vs the mountain west champs of a year ago in Utah St. Texas enters with new expectations and a new QB in Quin Ewers. You don’t get rich betting against Nick Saban. With Saban dropping games to two former assistants last year I think the tide roll in this one especially in heating up the new QB for the longhorns. 21 points is a lot to lay for a road favorite, but this is Alabama after all. 

Ohio (+24.5) vs Penn State 

Sean Clifford is still Sean Clifford. Until Penn State moves on from him at QB I will struggle to have confidence in the Nittany Lions. Ohio is a scrappy MAC team that will keep fighting if they fall behind early. Give me the bobcats to keep this closer than the experts think.

South Carolina vs Arkansas (-9)

Sam Pittman is 17-6 ATS in his time at Arkansas. I think Barry Odem will play a very different style of defense than we saw week 1 against Cincinnati. The Hogs blitzed very frequently against the new QB for the bearcats with varying results. The pressure did force quite a few overthrows, but it also left bearcat receivers extremely open at times as well. The Hogs against Spencer Rattler of South Carolina will play a lot more of their traditional drop eight coverage allow Rattler to make the mistakes himself and take advantage.   

UTSA (-2.5) vs Army

The service academies are not as good this year as they have been in years past. A down Army having to play one of the best teams in the group of 5 a week after playing a great Coastal team down in myrtle beach. The roadrunners have a more talented roster and it is fun to say MEEP! MEEP!

Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt (+12.5)

Early this week the line was Vandy +14. After people have seen what the commodores have done in the first two weeks that number is slowing deteriorating. A lot of points will be scored in this one. A week after giving up 31 points to Elon the dores hang strong and keep this one within the number.

South Alabama vs Central Michigan (-5)

Central Michigan scored 44 on the road at stillwater last thursday. Combined with a few extra days of rest and prep the chips will be more than be prepared to take down South Alabama in their home opener.

Memphis (-6) vs Navy 

It pains me to say it, but the midshipman will be a very bad football team in 2022. If Delaware can beat them by 7 in Annapolis I don’t see any reason the tigers should not cover this number as well. 

Wazzu vs Wisconsin (-17.5)

Big 10 bully ball in Madison give me the badgers.

Iowa State vs Iowa (-3.5)

• The Hawkeyes failed to score a TD vs an FCS opponent last week and only beat them by 4.
•  Iowa has won the last six Cyhawk trophies. 
• Everything says take the cyclones after watching week 1. 
• All Kirk Ferentz does is win though.
•  Never has laying 3.5 felt like so many points.

Kansas (+13.5) vs West Virginia 

The Jayhawks were on a hot streak of covering Big 12 spreads to end 2021 that streak will continue. Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

USC (-8) vs Stanford

Lincoln Riley and the Trojans take a trip to the farm for his first Pac-12 conference game. All systems were go vs Rice to open the year in Los Angeles and I expect that performance to carry over against a not up to snuff Cardinal team.

Oregon State (-1) vs Fresno State

The Beavs come in off a trouncing of Boise State. This team is absolute joy to watch and they could become frequent guests of this sheet if they continue to carry the magic they had last year. I have bet against them for far to long no more.

Mississippi State (-10.5) vs Arizona

Run Mesh till your eyes bleed with Will Rodgers in the saddle for leach and the bulldogs late night in the desert. SEC talent makes the difference in this one. I will leave you with one of the age old questions as we move into totals. If a cowbell is rung in the desert do any cows come?

Totals YTD 9-9

North Carolina vs Georgia State (Over 64.5)

Gene Chizik should re-retire after last week having his defense give up 61 points. This UNC offense is legit and the defense is horrible I will continue to take UNC overs until the books start setting every one of them at 70+.

South Carolina vs Arkansas (Over 53)

You can set your watch to every arkansas total being in between 52-56 week after week. At those numbers I am never gonna say under.

Southern Miss vs Miami (FL) (Over 51)

The Canes scored 70 Last week. This offense under Tyler Van Dyke is fun to watch. Southern miss will do enough to help the canes in this effort easy over.

Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt (Over 65.5)

I do not foresee much defense being played in Nashville on Saturday. 

Marshall vs Notre Dame (Under 51.5)

This has every middle age dad that loves ND taking a 2:00 pm nap written all over it. The Irish cruise in the most boring fashion possible.

App State vs Texas A&M (Under 54)

The Mountaineers are in for a rude awakening in College Station this weekend. After going against one of the worst defenses in college football last weekend in the tar heels they face an aggies team loaded top to bottom in defensive talent. I like the aggies to keep this one fairly low scoring.

Maryland vs Charlotte (Over 65.5) 

Why are the Terrapins playing this game on the road??? That out of the way the 49ers defense is terrible and the terps will want to get some kinks out of the offense and run this one up late after a poor showing last week vs Buffalo.

Wazzu vs Wisconsin (Under 49) 

The Cougs will struggle to score in this one and Braelon Allen will keep the clock moving at a steady clip on the ground.

Iowa State vs Iowa (Under 40)

This game might set offensive football back another three decades.

Arizona State vs Oklahoma State (Over 57.5)

The cowboys of old under Mike Gundy have returned. Points will be scored in bunches as the sky starts to fade into that black Oklahoma night.

Baylor vs BYU (Over 53.5)

Late night entertainment. Both of these defenses will not be as good as they have been the last few years I like some points to be scored out in Provo.

Parlay of the week

0-2 YTD -2 Units 

CMU -5, Wisconsin Under 49, USC -8

+604

10 to win 60.41

All Odds are via the Barstool Sportsbook as of 9/8/2022